Right now I see 7 teams with a realistic chance of making the college football playoffs and 5 possibly 6 of those teams control their own destiny. I'll start off with the obvious and clear moves. If Oklahoma wins then they are in, if they lose they are probably out. Clemson has a similar situation because they will probably be ranked 1 or 2 and will make it in with a win and be knocked out with a loss. Wisconsin in my opinion will make the playoffs with a win no matter how much they win by and will be knocked out no matter how much they lose by. The winner of the Auburn v Georgia game will be in and the loser will be eliminated.
So where does that leave us...SEC Champ and ACC champ will take up two of the spots for sure, and Oklahoma and Wisconsin will take the other two if they win. Lets say that happens and I think there is probably a 50% chance that will happen. Both teams are looking good but have opponents that can definitely beat them. If that happens this is how I see the rankings going:
If Clemson wins no matter who wins the SEC
1.Clemson
2.Oklahoma
3.Auburn/Georgia
4.Wisonsin
If Miami wins no matter who wins the SEC
1.Oklahoma
2.Auburn/Georgia
3.Wisconsin
4.Georgia
This is where it gets really interesting however, if Wisconsin or Oklahoma loses things could get really interesting so I will break it down scenario by scenario.
If Oklahoma OR Wisconsin loses. If Wisconsin or Alabama loses then I think Alabama makes it in with the 4 spot. They don't have a great win this year but their only loss was on the road to Auburn and they have absolutely destroyed pretty much everyone else they played. If Georgia wins against Auburn I think it will help them even more. I still think they make it either way but I could see something crazy happen and the committee not want to see Alabama in with Auburn since they lost by 2 scores.
If Oklahoma AND Wisconsin lose. I think this is very unlikely but still possible, if this happens it could really mess things up. If this happens then Alabama will definitely make it in, probably at the three spot behind the SEC Champ at 1 if Miami wins or the SEC champ at 2 if Clemson wins. If this happens then there are a bunch of teams who have an argument. TCU would be a 2 loss conference champ, Ohio State would be a 2 loss conference champ and UCF if they win would be an undefeated conference champ even if it is a group of 5 conference, USC would also be a 2 loss conference champ. I think it would ultimately come down to TCU or Ohio State. I think UCF just doesn't have the resume and USC has a 49-14 loss to Notre Dame which doesn't look great. Ohio State has a big loss to Iowa but I think the committee sees the BIG10 as better then the PAC12. I think if Ohio State and TCU win by about the same marine, within about 10 points then I think TCU should make it. If one team wins by a larger margin, for example if one team wins by 3 and one team wins by 28 then I think the team who wins by that large margin will make it in that 4 spot.
Either way it should be an interesting weekend. If you don't like chaos then you might want to cheer for Wisconsin and Oklahoma. If you do like things to get crazy then maybe cheer for a few upsets next Saturday.